El Nino expected to dissipate and transition to more unpredictable weather pattern

Photo by Jeff Clemens - Flooding during December 2018 covered US 101 between Valley View and The Barge Restaurant with roughly a foot of water. Neutral weather years can bring unpredictable and harsh weather to the Pacific Northwest, including the risk of

Washington has been barraged with some of the 'wackiest' weather over the past year and meteorologist are predicting it may get even wackier. The El Nino pattern is expected to dissipate over the next few months with forecasters and forecasting models predicting the possibility of a 'neutral' pattern on the horizon. The problem: neutral normally means wild in meteorologist lingo.

The abnormal year thus far

The El Nino pattern that developed late in 2018 has become one of the weakest in recent memory for the Pacific Northwest according to Pacific County Emergency Management Agency Director Scott McDougall and several meteorologists. El Nino typically means warmer-than-normal temperatures over the winter months along with dryer conditions.

The typical winter months from November to December remained on what many call the 'calmer side' of what the coast would normally see. Only a small handful of storms took aim at the coastline with most of them only bringing wind gusts of around 60mph that primarily impacted the Long Beach Peninsula. Raymond and South Bend remained nearly unaffected from each of the storms.

Then February 2019 hit and went down in the history books as one of the snowiest Februaries in Washington state history with Seattle being pummeled with over 20 inches of snow. Pacific County alone had areas with overall month totals reaching close to 15 inches. The systems spanned over several weeks but brought northern regions of the county to a standstill and the southern end of the Long Beach Peninsula.

Just a month later in March the conditions drastically changed and high temperatures reached the upper 70's to low 80's for a few weeks. Several wildfires erupted in the Menlo and Frances area with a few fires over five acres. Within a week's time the weather returned to the seasonal normals up until mid-June. July thus far has become one of the wettest on record in the state with drought conditions still plaguing much of the area even with the abnormally high rainfall totals.

What may be coming

Forecasters are becoming increasingly confident that the El Nino pattern will quickly dissipate over the next couple months and will likely transition to a 'neutral' pattern this fall. There is still an estimated 15% chance the transition could be to La Nina that is associated with lower-than-normal temperatures and wetter conditions. Some of the heaviest snowfall in Washington state has come with a strong La Nina.

Neutral winters on the other hand, leave a lot of speculation and more questions than answers. The pattern could bring wet or dry conditions or a combination of both. The blend of both creates some of the best conditions for stronger more impactful weather systems to develop. As of now forecasters are left with only assumptions of what may or may not happen.

"The early indication is we are headed to a neutral pattern. Weather bloggers tend to jump the gun ahead of the National Weather Service (NWS)," Pacific County Emergency Management Agency Director Scott McDougall said. "But the NWS is beginning to expect it too. Neutral patterns can bring stronger more significant storms but there is never a real guarantee. What will happen is difficult to predict even under the best of circumstances."

"We always prepare for the worst-case scenario," says McDougall

McDougall isn't planning to change any of the preparations for the coming fall and winter seasons because he mentions he always tends to 'prepare for the worst and hope for the best.' The 2007 storm is always in the minds of residents when strong bad weather is forecasted and for McDougall, that storm set the standard for today's preparedness. At the time of the 2007 storm, he was still working for the Raymond Fire Department and was on duty the night the memorable destruction began.

"I will never forget that night," McDougall said. "I was at the top of the stairs looking out towards the 3rd Street Park and could hear this rattling and ferocious noise. I looked out and I had a piece of metal roofing wrapped around my truck. I watched as another piece of metal roofing flew through the air about chest high. It looked like an airplane wing. I decided at that moment I didn't need to get the metal off my truck."

Overnight the department, according to McDougall, responded to only a few calls but over the coming 72 hours responded to just over 90. The storm wasn't initially that bad McDougall points out but as it continued, 'there were so many trees down that helicopters had to respond to some calls.'

Pattern leaves questions about fire danger

The weather pattern change isn't expected to have much effect on the overall drought and fire conditions outlook. Wildfire conditions are predicted to extend until at least October and be the most severe near the end of August and through the entire month of September. In 2018, several fires broke out in mid-October, including the memorable Elk Prairie Road Fire where local legend, Rob "Gweedo" Gwerder used a logging loader to help crews battle the fire.

"We are just going to have to sit back and see what happens," McDougall said. The heat will still be on when kids go back to school."